Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Andre Swift from EV Insight

D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards

Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.7% run rate.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
D’Andre Swift has run for a lot more yards per game (56.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
D’Andre Swift’s running effectiveness has improved this season, accumulating 6.94 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.75 rate last season.
Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (144 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.

Cons

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D’Andre Swift to be much less involved in his team’s run game this week (17.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (34.0% in games he has played).

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Rushing Yards