Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Commanders vs. Vikings
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to notch 17.8 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Dalvin Cook has earned 73.6% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Dalvin Cook has run for significantly fewer yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
- The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 7th-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
