Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Austin Ekeler from EV Insight

Austin EkelerRushing Yards

Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-125) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to total 13.3 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Austin Ekeler has received 57.9% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Austin Ekeler has grinded out 54.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (75th percentile).
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Austin Ekeler has been among the bottom running backs in the league at generating extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.75 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 25th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards