Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Antonio GibsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Commanders vs. Vikings
Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
- The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Washington Commanders have elected to go for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack this year (40.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (65.2%).
- Antonio Gibson has run for significantly fewer yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has had the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 4.17 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Rushing Yards
38
Rushing Yards
