Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Antonio Gibson from EV Insight

Antonio GibsonRushing Yards

Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have elected to go for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Cons

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack this year (40.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (65.2%).
Antonio Gibson has run for significantly fewer yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
The Minnesota Vikings defense has had the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 4.17 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Rushing Yards