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Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Antonio Gibson from EV Insight

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Antonio Gibson

Antonio GibsonRushing Yards

Player Props – Week 9

Commanders vs. Vikings

Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-120).

Pros

  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
  • The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Washington Commanders have elected to go for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons

  • The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
  • Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack this year (40.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (65.2%).
  • Antonio Gibson has run for significantly fewer yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
  • The Minnesota Vikings defense has had the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 4.17 yards-per-carry.

Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Rushing Yards

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