Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 66.0 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Zach Ertz has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (87.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (73.2%).
- THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to total 6.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
- The Arizona Cardinals offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Zach Ertz has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging a measly 6.22 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
