Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 66.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Zach Ertz has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (87.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (73.2%).
THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to total 6.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among TEs.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Zach Ertz has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging a measly 6.22 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards