Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-139) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 66.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accrue 7.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass attack this year (21.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (15.5%).

Cons

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Tyler Higbee’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 63.9%.
Tyler Higbee’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, notching a measly 5.68 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 figure last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 42.0) to tight ends this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards