Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to total 6.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
Tyler Conklin has been among the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 39.0 yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Cons

The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 39.0) vs. TEs this year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency against TEs this year, allowing 6.10 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards