Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Titans
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-115) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to garner 8.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
- Travis Kelce has accumulated many more air yards this season (73.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
- Travis Kelce has posted quite a few more receiving yards per game (90.0) this season than he did last season (59.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
