Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-115) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to garner 8.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce has accumulated many more air yards this season (73.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce has posted quite a few more receiving yards per game (90.0) this season than he did last season (59.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards