Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Robert WoodsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Titans
Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-115/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-114) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Woods to total 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
- Robert Woods has been a key part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 20.8% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
- Robert Woods’s receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 66.1% to 71.5%.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
- Robert Woods has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
