Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Tonyan from EV Insight

Robert TonyanReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-115) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to total 5.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass game this season (15.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (10.7%).
The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (63.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Cons

The Packers are a big 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Robert Tonyan’s receiving effectiveness has declined this season, totaling a mere 7.21 yards-per-target vs a 8.76 figure last season.
Robert Tonyan’s ability to pick up extra yardage has declined this season, totaling just 4.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.78 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards