Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-118/-112).
The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-118) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to notch 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 53.9 plays per game.
- Noah Fant has been a much smaller part of his offense’s pass attack this season (11.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.5%).
- Noah Fant has put up quite a few less air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
- Noah Fant has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (22.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
- Noah Fant’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, totaling a mere 6.29 yards-per-target compared to a 7.41 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
