Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-118/-112).

The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-118) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to notch 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 53.9 plays per game.
Noah Fant has been a much smaller part of his offense’s pass attack this season (11.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.5%).
Noah Fant has put up quite a few less air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (22.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
Noah Fant’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, totaling a mere 6.29 yards-per-target compared to a 7.41 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards