Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bears vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-125) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to earn 3.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
- Mike Gesicki’s receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 75.1%.
- Mike Gesicki’s pass-catching effectiveness has gotten better this year, notching 9.38 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.85 rate last year.
- Mike Gesicki’s talent in generating extra yardage have improved this season, compiling 4.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 2.85 rate last season.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- Mike Gesicki has accrued far fewer air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
