Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Commanders vs. Vikings
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-105) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (67.0) vs. TEs this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential target this year (60.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (82.5%).
- The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Logan Thomas’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 63.6%.
- Logan Thomas’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, averaging a measly 5.58 yards-per-target compared to a 7.86 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
