Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-105) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (67.0) vs. TEs this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential target this year (60.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (82.5%).
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Logan Thomas’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 63.6%.
Logan Thomas’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, averaging a measly 5.58 yards-per-target compared to a 7.86 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards