Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Falcons vs. Chargers
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
- Kyle Pitts has been much more involved in his team’s pass game this year (25.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (20.0%).
- Kyle Pitts’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, totaling 7.38 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 3.59 mark last season.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 8.73 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.10 seconds per snap.
- Kyle Pitts has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
- Kyle Pitts has accumulated quite a few less receiving yards per game (38.0) this season than he did last season (54.0).
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.7%) versus TEs this year (67.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
