Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-105) after it opened @ 27.5 (-120).

Pros

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
Juwan Johnson has run fewer routes this season (69.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accrue 3.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Juwan Johnson’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, notching a mere 7.24 yards-per-target compared to a 9.20 mark last season.
Juwan Johnson has been among the weakest tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards