College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Saints vs. Ravens
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-105) after it opened @ 27.5 (-120).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
- Juwan Johnson has run fewer routes this season (69.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (34.8%).
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accrue 3.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Juwan Johnson’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, notching a mere 7.24 yards-per-target compared to a 9.20 mark last season.
- Juwan Johnson has been among the weakest tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
