Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Commanders vs. Vikings
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-140/+115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 88.5 (-140) after it opened @ 86.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to earn 10.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
- Justin Jefferson has accrued many more receiving yards per game (103.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
- Justin Jefferson has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 67.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
99
Receiving Yards
99
Receiving Yards
