Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Josh PalmerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Falcons vs. Chargers
Right now, Josh Palmer’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-105) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to earn 8.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- Josh Palmer’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 6.68 yards-per-target vs a 8.27 mark last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
