Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Colts
Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to earn 8.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
- Jakobi Meyers has been a big part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 26.0% this year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
- Jakobi Meyers has compiled a whopping 72.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among wideouts.
- Jakobi Meyers has put up quite a few more receiving yards per game (72.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).
Cons
- The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 126.0) to WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
