Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-105) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
Hunter Henry has been among the most effective receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a stellar 8.51 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 78th percentile.
Hunter Henry’s skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, totaling 5.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 2.48 mark last season.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
Hunter Henry has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards