Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-120) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Hayden Hurst has run fewer routes this season (74.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (44.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to garner 5.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Hayden Hurst has been among the worst TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 21st percentile.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards