NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to accrue 8.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
- Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the bottom wide receivers in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.5%) versus wideouts this year (63.5%).
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
