Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to accrue 8.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the bottom wide receivers in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.5%) versus wideouts this year (63.5%).
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.88 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards