Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jaguars vs. Raiders
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-131) after it opened @ 37.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 4th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to garner 6.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among TEs.
- Evan Engram has posted many more receiving yards per game (38.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the 10th-most receiving yards per game in football (53.0) to tight ends this year.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
