Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Falcons vs. Chargers
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Drake London to accumulate 8.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
- Drake London has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, posting a Target Share of 28.7% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
- Drake London has been responsible for a whopping 29.7% of his team’s air yards this year: 85th percentile among wideouts.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.2%) to WRs this year (70.2%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.10 seconds per snap.
- Drake London has been among the worst possession receivers in football, catching a mere 60.1% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 20th percentile among wideouts
- Drake London has been among the weakest WRs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
