Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darnell Mooney from EV Insight

Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards

Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Darnell Mooney’s 69.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 62.2.
Darnell Mooney’s skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, notching 9.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 3.28 mark last season.
The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks project as the 5th-worst CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Cons

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 41.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards