Week 9 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brock Wright from EV Insight

Brock WrightReceiving Yards

Right now, Brock Wright’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).

Pros

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Green Bay Packers safeties project as the worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 34.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards