Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brock WrightReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Brock Wright’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Green Bay Packers safeties project as the worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 34.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
