NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Brevin JordanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Eagles
Right now, Brevin Jordan’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 19.5 (-115) after it opened @ 17.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a huge 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 69.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.4 plays per game.
- Brevin Jordan has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this season, staying in the game for 48.4% of snaps compared to just 36.2% last season.
- Brevin Jordan has notched a lot fewer receiving yards per game (7.0) this season than he did last season (22.0).
- Brevin Jordan’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.7% to 37.0%.
- Brevin Jordan’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, notching just 1.93 yards-per-target vs a 6.32 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
