Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 10.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 57.0 yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ability to generate extra yardage has been refined this season, totaling 8.31 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 3.24 mark last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (69.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (83.0%).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has totaled far fewer air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards
86
Receiving Yards
