Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Lions vs. Packers
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.8% pass rate.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Allen Lazard has accrued far more air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
- Allen Lazard has notched a lot more receiving yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).
- The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (178.0) to wideouts this year.
Cons
- The Packers are a big 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
