NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-115/-119).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 68.5 (-119) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 62.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among WRs.
- A.J. Brown has totaled substantially more receiving yards per game (90.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).
Cons
- The Eagles are an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- The Houston Texans cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best CB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
