Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Zach Wilson from EV Insight

Zach WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 206.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 206.5 (-135) after it opened @ 213.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to attempt 37.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
The New York Jets offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Cons

The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Zach Wilson has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a 58.1% Completion%, checking in at the 11th percentile.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, conceding 7.02 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
227
Passing Yards