Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Taylor HeinickePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Commanders vs. Vikings
Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Taylor Heinicke has been among the best precision passers in football this year with an impressive 67.8% Completion%, grading out in the 79th percentile.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 5th-most yards in the league (288.0 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
234
Passing Yards
234
Passing Yards
