WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Chiefs vs. Titans
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-114/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 273.5 (-115) after it opened @ 281.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Patrick Mahomes has thrown for substantially more yards per game (334.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a heavy 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.80 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.
- The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
278
Passing Yards
278
Passing Yards
