Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Marcus Mariota from EV Insight

Marcus MariotaPassing Yards

Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 179.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 179.5 (-105) after it opened @ 187.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Marcus Mariota has passed for significantly more yards per game (174.0) this season than he did last season (1.0).
Marcus Mariota has been among the most efficient QBs in football this year, averaging a terrific 7.76 yards-per-target while checking in at the 86th percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (73.6%).
The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks project as the 8th-worst group of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.10 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 30.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
Marcus Mariota has been among the least accurate QBs in the league this year with a 61.2% Completion%, ranking in the 23rd percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.44 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards