Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Colts
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 208.5 yards (-115/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 208.5 (-114) after it opened @ 210.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (73.5%).
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.80 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in football.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 33.8 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards
242
Passing Yards
