Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-113).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks project as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens have utilized play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 34.1 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 212.0 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards