Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 249.5 (-110) after it opened @ 252.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 38.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown weak efficiency this year, allowing 8.36 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.

Cons

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the league vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year (67.3%).
The Washington Commanders safeties project as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
276
Passing Yards