NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Falcons vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the OVER up to 285.5 (-103) after it opened @ 282.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 3rd-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 41.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Justin Herbert has been among the least effective QBs in the league this year, averaging just 6.62 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 23rd percentile.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
291
Passing Yards
291
Passing Yards
