NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Panthers
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 257.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 257.5 (-110) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 39.0 passes per game this year, grading out in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- Joe Burrow has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (286.0) this season than he did last season (211.0).
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.77 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
