NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Jalen HurtsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Eagles
Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 233.5 (-110) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 62.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Jalen Hurts has passed for many more yards per game (241.0) this season than he did last season (194.0).
Cons
- The Eagles are an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 30.7 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the NFL against the Houston Texans defense this year (65.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
243
Passing Yards
243
Passing Yards
