NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Davis MillsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Eagles
Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-137) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a huge 13.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 69.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.4 plays per game.
- Davis Mills has been among the least efficient passers in the league this year, averaging a lowly 6.30 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 14th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest level in football vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (63.0%).
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, conceding 6.06 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in football.
- The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
275
Passing Yards
275
Passing Yards
