Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Dolphins
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-118/-112).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-118) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to accumulate 16.3 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
- Raheem Mostert has garnered 60.6% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- Opposing offenses have run for the most yards in the NFL (168 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.
- The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
