Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Browns vs. Bengals
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 82.5 (-115) after it opened @ 83.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 5th-most run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 42.7% run rate.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accrue 16.9 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- Nick Chubb has received 60.9% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- Nick Chubb has rushed for a lot more yards per game (106.0) this year than he did last year (86.0).
Cons
- The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
