Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Melvin GordonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Right now, Melvin Gordon’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Melvin Gordon has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game this season (40.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (51.7%).
- Melvin Gordon has run for many fewer yards per game (33.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
- Melvin Gordon’s running efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a mere 3.49 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.45 mark last year.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense boasts the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding just 4.20 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards
50
Rushing Yards
