Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Buccaneers vs. Ravens
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-145) after it opened @ 52.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.7 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to garner 13.3 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
- Leonard Fournette has grinded out 54.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (76th percentile).
- The Baltimore Ravens linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 31.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack this week (65.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (77.9% in games he has played).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
- Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least yards in football (just 103 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
