Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Saints vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 84.5 (-110) after it opened @ 83.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 18.2 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
- Josh Jacobs has been a much bigger part of his team’s rushing attack this year (84.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
- Josh Jacobs has rushed for significantly more yards per game (110.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The New Orleans Saints defensive ends rank as the 4th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
