Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devin Singletary from EV Insight

Devin SingletaryRushing Yards

Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-120) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bills are a massive 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to earn 12.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most yards in the league (141 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Devin Singletary has been much more involved in his team’s offense this season, playing on 69.9% of snaps vs just 57.9% last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards