Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 104.5 yards (-145/+115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 104.5 (-145) after it opened @ 96.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to garner 24.8 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in football (158 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst group of LBs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 52.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (74.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (87.0% in games he has played).
Derrick Henry has run for many fewer yards per game (88.0) this year than he did last year (105.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards