NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Bears
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-127) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
- The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles project as the 6th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- David Montgomery has been a less important option in his team’s running game this season (45.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (74.1%).
- David Montgomery has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
