Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Andre Swift from EV Insight

D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards

Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-135) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.6% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.70 seconds per play.
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Cons

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards